With 18 Tests to go in the current World Test Championship (WTC) cycle, five teams are still in contention, and no team is assured of a place in the top two. Here is how the teams stack up.
India
Percent: 58.33, Matches remaining: Australia (five away)
Three shocking defeats against New Zealand means India are now in real danger of missing out on the WTC final at Lord’s next June. To be certain of still finishing in the top two, India now need to beat Australia 4-0. Four wins and a draw will lift India’s points to 65.79%, which will be marginally more than New Zealand’s maximum (64.29%) if they blank England 3-0 at home.
India will then be at worst second on the points table, after South Africa, who can finish on a maximum of 69.44% with 2-0 home wins against Sri Lanka and Pakistan. However, these scenarios are based on other teams maximising their points. If that doesn’t happen, India can still make it with far fewer points. If, for example, these results happen from the key upcoming series:
India lose to Australia 2-3
New Zealand draw with England 1-1
South Africa draw 1-1 at home in both their remaining series
Australia draw 0-0 in Sri Lanka
If the above four series go as mentioned, then Australia will finish on top at 58.77%, but India’s 53.51% will still be enough for second place, ahead of South Africa (52.78%), New Zealand (52.38%) and Sri Lanka (51.28%). Thus, India don’t necessarily need four wins if other results go their way. However, it’s far more likely now that they will need help from other teams to finish among the top two.
New Zealand
Percent: 54.55, Matches remaining: England (three home)
At the start of the series in India, it seemed highly improbable that New Zealand would still be in contention for a place in the WTC final after the series. But three incredible wins have given them the chance to dream. If New Zealand win each of their three remaining Tests, against England at home, they will finish on 64.29%. It won’t ensure qualification, but it will certainly keep them in the mix. If New Zealand lose one of those Tests, though, their percentage will drop to 57.14%, which might still be enough depending on other results.
South Africa
Percent: 54.17, Series remaining: Sri Lanka (two home Tests) and Pakistan (two home)
If South Africa win each of their four remaining Tests, they will finish with 69.44%, which will surely be enough for qualification, as only Australia can go past that number. Three wins and a draw will leave them with 63.89%, while three wins and a defeat will lower the percentage marginally to 61.11%, which could still give them a chance if other results go their way. South Africa have a favourable schedule too, with home Tests to come against Sri Lanka and Pakistan.
Australia
Percent: 62.50, Series remaining: India (five home Tests) and Sri Lanka (two away)
India’s three defeats against New Zealand have improved Australia’s chances of making the WTC final. A 3-2 series win against India will keep Australia ahead of India even if they lose both Tests in Sri Lanka. But Australia will want to do better than that, as New Zealand and Sri Lanka are also in contention for a top-two finish. To ensure qualification without depending on other results, Australia need five wins from their seven remaining matches.
Sri Lanka
Percent: 55.56, Series remaining: South Africa (two away Tests) and Australia (two home)
With a full 24 points gained from their last two Tests, Sri Lanka have made a strong push towards a top-two finish in this WTC cycle. Their four remaining Tests are against two opponents who are also contenders for the final. If Sri Lanka win each of those matches and take home 48 more points, they will finish on 69.23% and assure themselves of a place in the final regardless of other results. If they lose one and win three, they will end up at 61.54%, which will still leave them with a chance of qualifying, but depending on other results.
England
Percent: 40.79, Matches remaining: New Zealand (three away)
The two defeats in Pakistan means that England can finish with a maximum of 48.86% even if they beat New Zealand 3-0 in their last series of the current cycle. That won’t be enough for a place in the final.
Pakistan
Percent: 33.33, Series remaining: South Africa (two away Tests) and West Indies (two home)
Pakistan’s home form has shown some revival, but it’s too late in this cycle. If they win each of their four remaining Tests, they will finish on 52.38%. They will need several results going their way to be in contention. If, for instance, Sri Lanka lose 0-1 in South Africa, and draw 1-1 against Australia; India lose 1-2 in Australia; and New Zealand lose 1-2 against England, then Pakistan’s 52.38% will be enough for a second place behind Australia.
Bangladesh
Percent: 27.50, Matches remaining: West Indies (two away)
Four defeats in their last four Tests, against India and South Africa, have hurt Bangladesh badly – from 45.83% at one stage, they have currently dropped to 27.50%. Even if they win each of their two remaining Tests, they will only improve to 39.58%, which won’t be enough for a place in the top two.
West Indies
Percent: 18.52, Series remaining: Bangladesh (two home Tests) and Pakistan (two away)
West Indies have already played four series, and have only scored 20 points out of 108. Even if they win their last four Tests, they can only finish on 43.59%.