JD Vance and Tim Walz will square off on Tuesday in what could be the last major debate of the 2024 presidential election.
A second debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump appears unlikely, raising the stakes for their running mates to sway voters — and avoid making any big mistakes — when they meet face-to-face Tuesday in New York.
Vice presidential debates rarely influence presidential elections. But the 2024 race is extremely close and may be decided on the margins in a small handful of key battleground states, giving Vance and Walz a rare opportunity to move the needle.
“This is a race of inches,” said Kait Sweeney, a Democratic consultant. The vice presidential debate could produce “a moment that shifts the momentum” in a swing state such as Nevada oor Pennslyvania, she said.
What that momentum-changing moment might look like depends on Vance and Walz’s debate strategy. Harris has a narrow lead over Trump in most national polls with five weeks left before Election Day, but the candidates are running neck-and-neck in the key battleground states.
Both Vance, a first-term Republican senator from Ohio, and Walz, the Democratic governor of Minnesota, were not very high profile national names before getting tapped to serve as their party’s vice presidential nominees.
Vance penned a bestselling memoir about his working class roots in Appalachia before running for a U.S. Senate seat in Ohio in 2022 and joining the Republican ticket in July.
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Vance enters the debate with low favorability numbers after facing attacks from the Harris-Walz campaign and other Democrats for his position on issues like immigration and abortion and past comments criticizing women without children.
Just 34 percent of Americans hold a favorable opinion of Vance, according to recent polling averages, compared to 45 percent who said they viewed the first-term senator favorably. Walz, in contrast, is viewed favorably on average by 40 percent of Americans and unfavorably by 36 percent, recent polls show.
The debate offers Vance a chance to try to win back some women and moderates — two groups Trump needs to win in November — but it remains to be seen how he balances that with playing the traditional vice presidential role of attack dog.
“For Vance, creating a more likable impression while also being on the attack is a dilemma. It’s hard if not impossible to do both at the same time,” said Christopher Devine, a political science professor at the University of Dayton and expert on vice presidential candidacies.
Newsweek requested comment from the Harris and Trump campaigns.
Republicans argued that Vance should focus on the economy and border security and avoid delving into a fight over transgender rights and other contentious culture war issues.
“He needs to show that he’s got depth and substance,” said Gregg Peppin, a Minnesota-based Republican strategist.
On Tuesday Vance will likely spend more time attacking Harris and Walz as radical liberals than trying to appeal to moderates who are turned off by his conservative politics, said Terry Holt, a former campaign adviser to George W. Bush.
“He’s got a mission. It’s to define Kamala Harris and he’s not going to be particularly interested in being likable,” Holt said.
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Walz, for his part, has made likability a central part of his pitch to voters since bursting onto the national scene as Harris’ running mate.
The former football coach and high school teacher will face a similar challenge to Vance in finding ways to go on the offensive without coming across as overly negative, Democrats said.
“People tend to like Walz. If he can turn that into some good-natured but profound attacks on Trump and Vance, he’s going to have a good night,” said Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and longtime Democratic National Committee member.
Kamarck and other Democrats said Walz can fend off attacks from Vance by contrasting their levels of experience in public service. Walz served in Congress for 12 years before winning his race for governor in 2019. Vance has held elected office for less than two years.
Vance may also face added scrutiny due to Trump’s advanced age. Trump is 78 and would be the second-oldest U.S. president ever behind President Joe Biden.
The 81-year-old Biden’s decision to drop out of the 2024 race over questions about his age placed a spotlight on the vice presidency and may drive up interest in Tuesday’s debate, said Devine, the expert on vice presidential nominees.
“Going into the debate, that’s a question people will ask” about both candidates, said Devine. “Could I see this person taking over as president?”
