The elections in the United States will be in exactly 12 days.
It is not clear who is going to win. But, even considering the closeness of the competition, there are signs that, in recent days, Donald Trump’s candidacy has gained more strength.
Let me show some relevant data.
The Economistperhaps the most influential weekly newspaper in the economic world on a global scale, has a predictive model.
Until October 19, this model indicated a slight advantage for Kamala Harris. But Donald Trump has since turned it around.
With the latest information, Trump would win 273 votes in the Electoral College facing 265 by Kamala Harris.
The difference is minimal, but enough to exceed the 270 electoral votes required to win.
The result derives from Trump’s advances in states that are critical for the Democratic candidate: Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
As you know, in the North American electoral system, the popular vote is not decisive. But even considering the voting intention shown by national polls, the most recent ones mark an advantage for Trump.
The Wall Street Journal ended its uprising on October 22 and reported a 3-point lead for Trump.
Forbes/HarrisX ended on October 21 and reported to Trump ahead by 2 points.
CNBC concluded it on October 19 and also gave ahead of Trump by 2 points.
The advantage is close, but it is clear that the Republican candidate is on the rise.
In these few days remaining until the election, Harris will have to do something to change the trends if she wants to arrive with a chance of winning on Tuesday, November 5.
The other indicator to observe is the bets.
The RealClearPolitics site presents the results of 8 bookmakers.
Between mid-September and October 6, there was a favorable lead for Vice President Harris.
But, since then, the odds have been reversed and now Trump has an average lead of 20 points, That is, 60 percent bet on him and 40 percent on Harris.
Obviously what the bets reveal are perceptions of the people who play. There is nothing scientific about them. However, the observed somersault adds to other indications such as those we noted above.
I emphasize that from these data it should not be concluded that Trump will win. The election is still closed and anything can happen, but the most recent trends are in its favor.
The official discourse that Mexico will work with whoever wins the election is simply political correctness.
The reality is that it would be complicated for our country much more the economic and political environment in the event of a Trump victory.
It is also common to hear that the Republican candidate’s threats are mere electoral rhetoric to obtain greater support.
The experience of his previous mandate shows that It is capable of fulfilling what it offers.
His victory would be terrible for the future of democracy in the United States, for global stability and for Mexico.
It must be remembered that after the triumph of Trump in the 2016 elections, The exchange rate of the peso against the dollar went from around 18.60 to 20.90 and reached almost 22 pesos after his inauguration in January 2017, although it returned to around 18 pesos in the middle of 2017 after beginning the negotiation of what later became the TMEC.
However, the depreciation associated with his triumph was of the order of 18 percent in three months.
No one assures that this could happen again, but this movement reflects the risk that exists. Today, an increase of that magnitude would place the North American currency at 23.65 pesos.
The main problem, however, would not be devaluation but Trump’s ability to disrupt an economic model which has proven to be very successful in North America and has energized many different regions of the country.
The American voters have the floor. We can’t do practically anything from here, but it is important to be aware of the risk that this result can bring for Mexico.
