Ten thousand fewer children start the new term at independent schools amid fears about cost of upcoming Labour VAT attack

Ten-and-a-half thousand fewer pupils started the new school year at independent schools, a new poll suggests amid fears of the financial impact of Labour‘s VAT raid.  

Analysis by the Independent Schools Council (ISC) shows that there was an overall fall of 1.7 per cent in the roll last month.

Secondary schools appear to be the worst hit with a 4.6 per cent fall in the number of people starting year seven. 

It comes as Labour prepares to remove private schools’ VAT exemption in January, rather than in September 2025 as many had expected.  

The ISC said the findings of its poll of 1,185 schools suggested a £92.8million hit to the Department of Education due to the cost of taking on 10,540 new students.

Julie Robinson, chief executive at the Independent Schools Council, said: ‘This data couldn’t be clearer – parents are already removing their children from independent schools as a result of the government’s plans to charge parents VAT. 

Analysis by the Independent Schools Council (ISC) shows that there was an overall fall of 1.7 per cent in the roll last month across 1,185 schools.

It comes as Labour prepares to remove private schools’ VAT exemption in January, rather than in September 2025 as many had expected.

‘This is just the tip of the iceberg and the knock-on effect on schools is significant, with many small schools already at risk of closure. 

‘We want to work with the government to mitigate some of the biggest challenges of this policy, including looking at delaying the implementation of VAT, and seriously reviewing its impact on young people with special educational needs and disabilities.’

Among the schools worst hit were those with fewer than 300 pupil in total (3.2 per cent drop), as well as schools located in Wales (5.2 per cent), Yorkshire (2.6 per cent) and South West England (2.4 per cent).

However the decline is lower than that found in a survey of parents last month, which suggested more than 140,000 children could be looking for state school places by the end of the academic year.

Up to a quarter of parents (23 per cent) said they could pull their children out of private schools ahead of the VAT on fees levy in January or next summer.

One in ten said they would get only struggle through the year by asking family and friends for money, while one in eight (13 per cent) – as reported in last weekend’s Mail on Sunday – said their only choice will be take their children out of their school in the middle of the school year.

Around 620,000 children, just under 7 per cent of the UK school population are currently educated in private schools, a figure which could plummet to under half a million.

The survey of private school parents, part of the Saltus Wealth Index Report, said more than half (55 per cent) now believe their children’s education will be disrupted because of the 20 per cent tax addition.