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Here’s what we’re going with in Week 5 in Browns-Commanders, Panthers-Bears, Raiders-Broncos, Dolphins-Patriots and Cowboys-Steelers.
All kickoff times below are ET.
Browns vs. Commanders — 1 p.m. (FOX)
We’re all in on Jayden Daniels and Washington in this game. While the Cleveland D will likely test the Commanders offense in a way that Cincinnati and Arizona did not in Weeks 3 and 4, we still like Washington to get the job done at home.
Right now, the Commanders look capable of scoring at least 20 points even against a good defense, and that’s probably understating how efficient Daniels and Co. have been. On the other side of the ball, the Deshaun Watson-led Browns have scored 17 points or fewer in all four games this season against underwhelming competition.
The Browns could get a boost on Sunday if starting tackles Jack Conklin and Jedrick Wills return to the field. Based on this offense’s struggles the last two weeks against the below-average Giants and Maxx-Crosby-less Raiders defenses, though, that won’t be enough for Cleveland to take down the red-hot Commanders on the road.
Best bet: Browns -3.5 (-102 at DraftKings)
Panthers vs. Bears — 1 p.m. (CBS)
The Panthers have been solid since replacing Bryce Young with Andy Dalton, but the Bears D is a different beast than the Las Vegas and Cincinnati defenses that Carolina faced in Weeks 3 and 4.
The biggest questions about the Panthers, however, are on the defensive side of the ball, as both DL Derrick Brown and LB Shaq Thompson are out for the season. Without two of the best players on a unit that was lacking proven talent in the front seven before those injuries, can the Panthers hold up well enough defensively to keep this game close?
The Bears finally showed signs in Week 4 of having some offensive firepower to complement their own stout defense. Against the Rams, D’Andre Swift produced 165 yards on 23 touches, and rookie Caleb Williams put together his second solid performance in as many weeks.
This feels like a 24-17 win for Chicago.
Best bet: Bears -3.5 (-120 at ESPN BET)
Raiders vs. Broncos — 4:05 p.m. (FOX)
The Broncos found themselves in a relatively high-scoring game in Week 1. Since then, the combo of Bo Nix’s struggles and the outstanding play of the Denver D has made the under a lock in any game involving Sean Payton’s team.
The Broncos have allowed just 29 points total to the Steelers, Bucs and Jets the last three weeks, and the totals in those games were 19, 33 and 19.
Against a Vegas offense that cannot run the football and will be without Davante Adams (hamstring/trade request), defensive coordinator Vance Joseph’s stingy group should keep this score well under the modest O/U, which is the lowest of the entire Week 5 slate at 36 as of Friday morning.
Best bet: Under 36 (-110 at bet365)
Dolphins vs. Patriots — 1 p.m. (FOX)
Speaking of games where it feels almost impossible to see many points being scored, Miami’s AFC East matchup with New England offers little to anyone hoping to see quality offense.
The Pats have not been able to give Jacoby Brissett time to throw the last two weeks, and as a result, New England has scored just 16 points in its last 120 minutes of action.
Meanwhile, we’ve learned over the last few weeks that Miami is not nearly the same offense without Tua Tagovailoa under center. The Dolphins could not get anything going against Buffalo in Week 2 (after Tagovailoa went out during that game), and they also struggled — to put it lightly — in Week 3 against Seattle and Week 4 against Tennessee.
This week brings a road matchup with a good New England defense capable of subjecting Tyler Huntley to yet another rough outing unless he looks dramatically better than he did five days ago at home.
If you’re going to tune in to this one, at least take advantage of the likely lack of offense by hitting the under.
Best bet: Under 36.5 (-110 at bet365)
Cowboys vs. Steelers — 8:20 p.m. (NBC/Peacock)
We gave out the under in our early look at this game. We still expect a low-scoring matchup, and we also like Pittsburgh to win as slight home favorites.
The Dallas defense has had issues even with DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons healthy. With Lawrence on IR and Parsons likely to miss Sunday’s game as well, the Pittsburgh offense should be able to take advantage at a raucous Acrisure Stadium.
Offensively, Dallas is still dangerous thanks to the Dak Prescott-CeeDee Lamb combo. But this unit doesn’t have many other weapons that concern decent defenses, much less one as good as Pittsburgh’s. Expect T.J. Watt and the Pittsburgh D, which is allowing less than 14 points per game this year, to lead the Steelers to their fourth win of the season.
Best bet: Steelers -1.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
Bonus bet: Under 44 (-110 at bet365)
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