Former President Donald Trump is holding a slim national lead over Vice President Kamala Harris less than two weeks before Election Day, according to a new poll.
A poll released on Thursday by CNBC showed Trump, the Republican nominee, ahead of Harris, the Democratic nominee, by just 2 percentage points among registered U.S. voters, with the former president preferred by 48 percent of respondents while the vice president was preferred by 46 percent. Another 5 percent of voters said that they were still undecided, while 1 percent intended to vote for a different candidate.
Trump’s lead shrunk to 1 point in a crucial subset of those surveyed for the CNBC poll—voters in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Trump was backed by 48 percent of battleground voters, while 47 percent preferred Harris.
The poll was conducted for CNBC by Public Opinion Strategies, which served as the Republican pollster, and Hart Research, which served as the Democratic pollster, for the survey. The survey was conducted from October 15 to 19 and had a total sample of 1,000 voters nationwide. The nationwide sample included 186 voters from Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. An additional 400 voters were interviewed in those states for a total sample of 586. It has a margin of error of 3.1 percent for all registered voters and 4 percent for battleground voters.
Newsweek has reached out for comment to the Trump and Harris campaigns via email on Thursday.
Trump was also leading nationally by 2 points (51 to 49 percent) in a HarrisX/Forbes poll released on Wednesday, although 12 percent of voters surveyed said they were still “weighing their choices.” The survey polled 1,244 likely voters between October 21 and 22 and had a margin of error of 2.5 percent.
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However, a national poll released by TIPP on Thursday showed Harris ahead of Trump by 3 points (50 to 47 percent). The poll was conducted among 1,260 likely voters between October 21 and October 23 and has a margin of error of 2.8 percent.
While several additional recent surveys have been favorable towards the vice president, the overall polling pictured suggests that the race is in a dead heat.
Harris continues to maintain a small but somewhat diminished national lead over Trump in an average of recent polls compiled by FiveThirtyEight. The Democratic candidate had a 1.7 percent advantage as of Thursday afternoon. She was ahead by up to 2.8 percent earlier this month.
Averages of battleground state polls are even closer, although Trump currently has leads of a little more than 1 percent in Georgia, Arizona and North Carolina, according to FiveThirtyEight.
Micah Roberts of Public Opinion Strategies told CNBC that Trump was ahead in his polling “because he’s winning men by more than he’s losing women.”
“It’s a difference because of younger men, and the advantage among younger men is strong, and it’s just not as strong for Harris among younger women, and older women especially,” he said.
While other recent polls have also shown that Trump has a clear lead with men and Harris has a clear lead with women, some surveys suggest that Harris’ edge among women could outweigh Trump’s advantage among men.
A poll released on Wednesday by The Economist/YouGov showed that the former president recently tripled his advantage among male voters, going from a 3-point lead last week to a 9 point lead this week. Meanwhile, the poll showed Harris with a larger lead of 13 points among women.
In every U.S. presidential election since 1980, more women have cast ballots than men, according to the Center for American Women and Politics (CAWP).
