Marijuana will be legal in over half the United States if several ballot measures pass in November, with lobbyists confident that at least a few will succeed.
Florida, North Dakota and South Dakota residents will vote on initiatives calling to legalize recreational marijuana, while Nebraska, Arkansas and Oregon will look to legalize or expand medical marijuana access.
Lobbyist group NORML has worked to promote these measures through public outreach and education, coordinating with campaign leaders to bolster efforts to get these ballot measures over the line.
NORML Political Director Morgan Fox told Newsweek in an email that the group remains confident that the efforts are “winnable” if close, citing recent polling in each state.
Fox pointed to a 15 percent undecided vote in North Dakota, which could prove the difference in a state with only 5 percent difference between a “Yes” and “No” vote and a majority support for Florida’s amendment.
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“The most direct result of any of their passage would be that thousands to tens of thousands of responsible cannabis consumers would no longer have to worry about arrests or the lifelong collateral consequences of having a criminal record,” Fox said.
Nebraska’s medical marijuana initiatives are polling at 59 percent, but Fox lamented legal challenges to the validity of signatures submitted in order to even get the measure on the November ballot.
“It is possible that their votes could be tossed out after the fact,” Fox wrote, adding that legal challenges aimed at keeping cannabis initiatives off the ballot or invalidated after passage “are becoming increasingly common tactics for opponents of cannabis policy reform.”
Former President Donald Trump caused a stir last month when he came out in favor of legalization in his home state of Florida.
“As everyone knows, I was, and will be again, the most respected LAW & ORDER President in U.S. History. We will take our streets back by being tough & smart on violent, & all other types, of Crime,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post in September.
“In Florida, like so many other States that have already given their approval, personal amounts of marijuana will be legalized for adults with Amendment 3,” Trump wrote. “Whether people like it or not, this will happen through the approval of the Voters, so it should be done correctly.”
Vice President Kamala Harris announced on the All the Smoke podcast that she wants to legalize marijuana use, saying she feels “strongly that people should not be going to jail for smoking weed.”
Pew Research Center in March released polling that found 57 percent of Republicans age 18 to 20 favor making marijuana legal for medical and recreational use. Older Republicans age 30 to 49 share a similar sentiment, with 52 percent support.
Despite what would seem by and large support for legalization, the states with the three main efforts—Florida, North Dakota and South Dakota—remain far from slam dunks due to a number of circumstances.
North Dakota voters passed a legalization measure for medical marijuana in 2016, but subsequent pushes for recreational legalization in 2018 and 2022 ended in failure, according to the Rockefeller Institute of Government.
South Dakota passed a recreational legalization measure in 2020, but the state’s Supreme Court overturned the vote due to the state’s requirement for ballot measures to address a single subject, and the legalization effort aimed to pass both medical and recreational use at the same time.
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Florida has spent years in a legal tussle over the validity of the measure since the state seeks to amend the state’s constitution in order to legalize recreational use. Titled “Amendment 3,” the measure faced a legal challenge from the state attorney general, but the state Supreme Court deemed that the amendment met all requirements.
Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis has also actively campaigned against the measure, and his wife, Casey DeSantis, released a statement on X arguing that the amendment “creates a permanent, constitutional right to possess over 100 joints at a time and SMOKE ANYWHERE in Florida—even public places where it could more easily fall into the hands of children.”
Newsweek reached out by email on Friday to the governors of Florida, South Dakota, North Dakota and Nebraska for comment.
