Kamala Harris’ lead over Donald Trump has grown in only one swing state since September, according to polling.
FiveThirtyEight’s averages, show the Democratic presidential candidate losing ground in all seven swing states, except Nevada, where her lead has increased, and North Carolina, where the polls have remained largely the same.
The largest fall in Harris’ lead came in Arizona and Georgia, two states where Republican presidential candidate Trump now has the lead. On September 1, Harris had a marginal lead of 0.1 points and 0.4 points respectively in each state. However, Trump now leads by 1.2 points, on 48.1 percent to Harris’ 46.9 percent, in Arizona. In Georgia, Trump is leading by 1.1 points, on 48.3 percent to his opponent’s 47.2 percent.
The vice president has also seen her lead cut by 1.2 points in Wisconsin, from 2.9 points on September 1 to 1.7 points. In Pennsylvania and Michigan, she has seen a smaller cut to her lead of 0.3 points in both states. Meanwhile, in North Carolina, which is currently the closest race, the polls have remained largely stable, with Trump maintaining a marginal lead of around 0.5 points since the beginning of September.
But although Harris’ lead may have declined in most of the swing states, her lead has increased in Nevada, where the Democrats have won the past four presidential elections.
In the Silver State, Harris’ lead stood around the 0.3 to 0.5 mark during the first week of September. She is now leading Trump by 1 point, on 47.9 percent to to his 46.9 percent. Meanwhile, pollster Nate Silver‘s forecast shows that Harris’ lead has grown by 1.1 points since September 1, from 0.8 points to 1.9 points.
Professor of Political and Computational Social Science at Caltech, R. Michael Alvarez, attributed Harris’ success in the state to her outreach to Hispanic voters, who make up 28 percent of the population in Nevada, according to the U.S. Census, and 21 percent of the state’s electorate, according to UCLA.
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“Harris has recently launched a significant Spanish-language radio blitz in Nevada, according to other news reports they are spending upwards of $3 million on these ads,” he told Newsweek. The latest polls from Nevada show Harris is polling at above 50 percent among Hispanic voters.
Alvarez also cited Harris’ strong support among unions as a reason for her growing lead in Nevada.
“Also Harris might be winning the ground game in Nevada, with strong support of many of the unions, who are volunteering to go door-to-door for Harris, which is a very effective campaign strategy,” he said. Harris has received support from the AFL-CIO, as well as the Service Employees International Union, which has been reaching out to voters over the phone and door to door.
“Given that Harris has recently been raising a lot more money than Trump, she’s got the funds to invest in the ground game, as well as on radio, television, and social media,” he added.
Meanwhile, Professor of Government and International and Public Affairs at Columbia University Robert Shapiro warned that although Harris is leading in Nevada, the state is “too close to call,” owing to Trump’s support among voters without college degrees, who make up 27 percent of the electorate.
“Nevada has been a Democratic state in presidential elections and that explains why Harris has done well but it is still too close to call. What she needs to do in Nevada is what she needs to do everywhere and get out the vote of women, minorities and young adults. The reason Nevada is close rather than clearly Democratic is Trump’s support among voters without college degrees, including his inroads among Black and Latino voters without college degrees and especially men,” he told Newsweek, According to the latest polls, Trump is polling at around 53 to 55 percent among voters without college degrees in Nevada.
Shapiro added that Nevada is a strategically important state to win. “Harris does not need Nevada to win the electoral vote if she wins MI, WI, and PA and the one congressional district in Nebraska, but winning Nevada would mean she does not need the Nebraska district vote,” he said.
Newsweek has contacted the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.
Swing state polls have differed throughout the election cycle. A Bloomberg News/Morning Consult survey of 6,165 registered voters conducted between September 19 and 25 found that Harris was leading Trump by between 3 and 7 points in every swing state other than Georgia, where they were tied with 49 percent support apiece. The poll had a margin of error of +/- 1-3 percentage point.
However, another poll, by AtlasIntel between September 20 and 25 found that Trump was leading Harris in five swing states. The only states where Harris was leading was in North Carolina (50.5 percent to 48.1) and Nevada (50.5 percent to 47.7). The poll had a margin of error of between 2-3 percentage points.
Meanwhile, Nate Silver’s poll tracker shows that while Harris’ lead has been cut in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin, it has grown in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Nevada. Silver’s polling average in North Carolina has not seen much change in the space of a month, with Trump currently ahead by 0.4 points.
Nonetheless, FiveThirtyEight’s forecast shows that Harris is projected to win in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan and Nevada, which would be enough to secure her a victory, while Trump leads in North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona.
However, the polls remain close in the swing states, meaning the election is still anybody’s to win.
“Slim margins in the swing states make this cycle’s presidential race the closest in decades—the outcome could be closer than in any election in nearly 150 years,” FiveThirtyEight wrote on its website.
