Vice President Kamala Harris‘ narrow lead over former President Donald Trump is shrinking, with a new national poll indicating the 2024 presidential race is tightening just weeks before Election Day.
A recent Emerson College survey of 1,000 likely voters shows Harris leading Trump by just one percentage point, with 49 percent supporting Harris and 48 percent backing Trump. The poll has a margin of error of three percentage points.
The race is now nearly deadlocked, with both candidates splitting the national vote and drawing closer in key battleground states. Harris, who was two points ahead of Trump late last month, is now barely edging out the Republican nominee.
This narrowing gap could be a worrying sign for Harris.
Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, said that while the margin between the candidates has held steady since early September, with Harris maintaining a slight edge, “it is less than Biden’s four-point lead in Emerson’s 2020 national polls at this time.”
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The poll also reveals a clear gender divide. Trump leads among men, with 56 percent backing him, compared to 42 percent who support Harris.
Fifty-five percent of women support Harris, while 41 percent say they support Trump.
This gap reflects broader U.S. election trends, where men tend to lean toward Trump, while women tend to favor Harris.
Voter sentiment also remains deeply polarized, according to the survey.
Among those who have already made up their minds, 80 percent said they decided who they were voting for more than a month ago. Early deciders tend to favor Trump (52 percent), while those deciding more recently favor Harris (60 percent).
Three percent of voters are still undecided, and although that’s a small percentage, it could still shift the outcome of the election, especially in such a close race. Kimball noted that while undecided voters slightly lean toward Harris, the poll’s margin of error means their final choice could tip the scales either way.
A Good Week for Trump
This shrinking gap is especially troubling for Harris, given how past elections have played out.
As Kimball pointed out, Joe Biden had a stronger lead over Trump at this stage in the 2020 election, which provided a buffer heading into the final weeks of the campaign.
Similarly, Hillary Clinton had a significant edge over Trump in 2016, before Trump made a dramatic comeback in the final weeks before the election.
On Thursday, Nate Silver‘s forecast confirmed the momentum shifting toward Trump, noting that his chances of winning are at their highest since August. The updated model reflected several strong polling numbers in Trump’s favor in crucial swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Silver’s latest projections show Trump holding a slight edge in the Electoral College, with a 50.2 percent chance of winning, compared to Harris’ 49.5 percent — despite Harris having a 75 percent chance of winning the popular vote.
