Republican Senator JD Vance won the vice presidential debate against Minnesota Governor Tim Walz by the slightest of margins, according to a CNN instant poll conducted among registered voters who watched the showdown.
Fifty-one percent of respondents said that Vance came out on top, compared to 49 percent who said the same of Walz. The margin of error was +/- 5.3 points.
The CNN viewer results were somewhat more favorable for Walz than CNN’s own panel of post-debate anchors, who slammed Walz for being either over or underprepared and gave the advantage to Vance.
According to David Chalian, CNN’s political director, the poll was conducted among registered voters who specifically watched the debate, rather than a broader sample of all registered or likely voters.
“To be clear, our sample consists of about a third Democrats, a third Republicans, and a third independents. Overall, it leans about 5 percentage points more Democratic than a nationwide poll of registered voters, so keep that in mind as we look at these debate results,” Chalian explained.
“Now, regarding expectations versus reality: Before the debate, 45 percent thought Vance would win, and 54 percent thought Walz would win. In the end, it was 51 percent to 49 percent in Vance’s favor, meaning Vance exceeded expectations, while Walz underperformed according to this group of debate watchers,” Chalian said.
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The CNN instant poll had a similar result to a CBS News flash poll done in conjunction with YouGov, which showed Vance winning by a slim margin. That survey of debate watchers had Vance with 42 percent to Walz’s 41 percent. The margin of error was +/- 2.7 points. Seventeen percent of respondents said the debate was a draw.
Notably, that CBS/YouGov snap poll asked debate watchers whether they thought the tone of the debate was negative or positive. Nearly nine in 10 said it was generally positive, a sharp reversal from previous presidential debates when former President Donald Trump was on stage.
This is a developing story that will be updated.
