How to assess which clubs improved or failed in the AFL trade period

The AFL trade and free agency period often starts with a whisper and finishes with a flourish.

After a week and a half of furrowed brows and frantic paperwork, the dust has begun to settle on a new footy future for all 18 AFL clubs.

The trade and free agency period operate in a strange landscape in the footy schedule.

Winners and losers are often proclaimed from all corners, but often not known for years to come.

A total of 28 players find new clubs across 19 trades and seven free agency signings.

Here is a breakdown of what clubs were trying to do in the short and longer terms, and who looks to have improved through this year’s trade period.

The most valuable players

Some trade periods come and go without a headliner. This year wasn’t one of those.

This year’s trade period featured current All-Australians, several former premiership winners, former high draft picks and perhaps the most marketable player in the game.

Fremantle came into the trade period with a stellar hand of three picks inside the first 17 selections in this year’s draft. Some clubs may have held firm in the face of a strong draft. Instead, the Dockers decided to push forward.

Fremantle welcome former Richmond star Shai Bolton to the club, a dynamic midfielder/forward who can break games open off his own boot.

At his best he is a horror assignment, causing mismatches just by himself. Fremantle hope his attacking prowess provokes their scoring abilities to new heights — and the side to a late September finish.

Other valuable talents such as Dan Houston, Jack Lukosius, Bailey Smith, Liam Baker, Daniel Rioli and Josh Battle found new clubs, alongside some more speculative bets.

Several clubs focused on talent rather than picks this year. But a surprise club might improve the most due to a return to the oldies.

North Melbourne went into the trade period with a clear target on bringing in experienced players, figuring they had enough young talent for the hard years to come.

Former premiership players Luke Parker, Jack Darling and Caleb Daniel may be closer to the end of their career than the start, but they might just have enough in the tank to make the Roos a little better over the next year or two without hurting their long term build.

The spectre of a super draft

Each upcoming draft class tends to shape the tone of trade discussions, with the value of picks often determined by the perceived talent available this year and next.

All evidence suggests that this is not only a higher quality draft than recent years, but also more desirable than next year’s crop.

Clubs have indicated both privately and in their public actions that the first round is of an almost unprecedented quality and depth in draft history — perhaps right through the first 25 or even 30 selections. This draft appears heavy with attacking options, midfielders and — appealing to some clubs in particular — Victorians

Port Adelaide list boss Chris Davies surmised this to SEN when articulating his thinking around trading two-time All Australian Dan Houston from the club.

“We just felt that this was an opportunity to take a long-term view and to improve the list through some draft capital in what is considered a very good year.”

Instead of sharp cliffs through the first round, similar offers were presented for picks from Gold Coast’s former pick 6 down to pick 14, formerly belonging to Hawthorn. This indicates little separating that wide range of picks.

Further evidence is available by the heavy return to other clubs auctioning their first round picks for bid matching points. Brisbane’s pick 20 netted four slightly later Richmond picks in return, while Essendon nabbed five Melbourne picks and their first rounder next year to give up pick 9.

These trades were both at a far steeper conversion rate than clubs were generally able to achieve when making such pick splits in years’ past.

One club decided to buy into this draft to an unprecedented extent.

Richmond has invested more heavily into this draft than perhaps any club has ever done before — save for the expansion drafts of the Suns and Giants.

The Tigers now hold eight picks in the first 24 after sending beloved premiership players Liam Baker, Dan Rioli, Shai Bolton and Jack Graham out of the state.

That currently shapes as a full third of the top end of the draft as it currently sits. If this draft is really as strong as some suggest it could set up the club for years to come.

Some choose to buy later

Not all clubs were obsessed with getting into this draft.

For a select number of clubs, the goal was to ensure that they could bring in talent via the Father-Son or Academy pathways without high draft picks needlessly being eaten up by other clubs’ bids.

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The current draft system operates on a club nomination and currency matching process. A hypothetical bid of pick two for Brisbane-tied talent Levi Ashcroft would have to be matched by the Lions’s next available picks.

The Lions, looking to build future assets, traded their first round pick for later picks and 2025 selections. In that process they may have built up goodwill with their trade partners that may delay bids on Ashcroft and Sam Marshall.

The most extreme version of this strategy has been deployed by the Gold Coast. The Suns, light on current list spots, came into the trade period with very different goals to much of the competition.

The Suns not only have a highly touted 2024 Academy talent in Leo Lombard but also quite a few Academy selections next year who were of All-Australian quality at under-16 level. That potentially stellar group includes one of the early favourites for the number one selection in Zeke Uwland, brother of current Sun Bodhi.

Changes made to the bidding process, beginning next season, will increase the cost of this talent. The Suns had to desperately accumulate future picks to have any hope of retaining access to at least some of these players. 

Building homegrown stars has long been a goal for the Gold Coast — to not only get better on field but also to sell the game to youngsters in the region.

From the outside the Suns overpaid in many of their trades, receiving cents on the dollar for valued picks. But long term it could finally move the Suns up the ladder.

The whole picture

So who won overall?

That speaks to one of the key differences of the trade period. Everyone in football is looking to do the same thing — win a flag. However, the path to that goal is different for each club.

In the short term, it looks like North Melbourne, Hawthorn and Fremantle will get better on the field immediately.

Longer term, sides like Richmond might have done several years’ worth of rebuilding in just one 10-day period.

But sometimes the differences are smaller. Dan Houston might just be the missing piece that reignites Collingwood’s deadly ball movement. Jack Lukosius might be the answer to Port’s late season forward line issues.

Maybe it’s a player finding a second club and a bigger role, such as Bailey Smith or Josh Battle. It could even be a draft pick without a name attached yet.

That’s the beauty of the trade period — the end result takes time to reveal itself, even if the analysis is instantaneous.