Former President Donald Trump has drastically reduced Vice President Kamala Harris‘ lead among college graduates in just a few months, according to a new poll.
A Fox News national survey of 1,110 registered voters, conducted October 11-14, reveals Trump has a 50 percent to 48 lead over Harris, a reversal of the September results in which Harris led by the same 2-point margin. The results have a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.
When broken down further, the results show that the vice president has a 1-point lead over Trump (49 percent to 48) when those with college degrees are asked how they will vote in November. The results among college graduates have a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
Harris had a 12-point lead over Trump among college graduates in a previous Fox News poll in September (55 percent to 43) and a 14-point lead in an August survey (56 percent to 42). The results also show that Trump is ahead of Harris among white voters with college degrees (51 percent to 46), having been 12 points behind the vice president in September.
Newsweek reached out to Trump’s and Harris’ campaign teams for comment via email.
Breaking down poll results into subgroups means looking at data among smaller sample sizes and, therefore, increasing the margins of error. The Fox News results still suggest a clear trend of Trump cutting into Harris’ lead among college graduates, a pivotal Democratic voting bloc.
In the 2020 election, Biden beat Trump among college graduates 55 percent to 43, according to a CNN exit poll. In 2016, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton beat Trump by 10 points among college graduates.
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Trump’s eradication of Harris’ lead among college graduates—who are estimated by CNN to make up 41 percent of this year’s electorate—could prove pivotal in the neck-and-neck 2024 election.
“Overall, the movement toward Trump is subtle but potentially consequential, especially if he is making gains among college-educated voters,” says Democratic pollster Chris Anderson, who conducts Fox News surveys with Republican Daron Shaw.
“However, the race has been well within the margin of error for three months and the outcome will likely hinge on which side is more effective at getting their voters to the polls as opposed to persuasion.”
Harris’ 49 percent share among college graduates and 46 percent among white voters with a college degree are her lowest in Fox News’ polling since she became the 2024 Democratic presidential candidate.
Trump’s 48 percent score is also his highest among this demographic and a record high among voters aged 65 and over (49 percent).
Harris recorded her lowest score among Black voters (67 percent) and voters aged 65 and over (47 percent) in the Fox News survey.
Trump has previously relied on the support of white non-college voters during his presidential campaigns, receiving 64 and 65 percent backing from this demographic in the 2016 and 2020 elections, according to Pew Research.
