A change in voter registration in the swing state of North Carolina could give former President Donald Trump an edge in this November’s election.
Voter roll data for the state showed the Democrat Party lost around 7 percent of its voter base between 2020 and 2024, whether from voters switching parties, leaving the state or dying.
On Thursday, the state’s Election Board announced it had removed nearly three-quarters of a million people from its records over the past 20 months.
North Carolina now has around 2.4 million registered Democrats, compared to 2.6 million in 2020. There were 2.23 million Republicans four years ago, compared to 2.29 million this year.
“Despite the registered Democrats declining overall and seeming to have been outpaced by Republican registrations, the reality is that North Carolina continues to be a 50-50 state,” David B. McLennan, professor of Political Science at Meredith College, told Newsweek.
“Many of the state’s newest voters and those who were formerly registered as Democrats are now registered as “unaffiliated voters”—the largest segment of voters in North Carolina. Most of the unaffiliated voters are “shadow partisans,” meaning that they still lean Democrat or Republican in their voting behavior.”
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With the gap between the two groups of registered voters now narrower, Republicans in the state appeared confident of success.
“This is a historic repudiation of the Democratic Party. It is also the result of electing more Republicans at every level of government and the electoral strength of Donald Trump,” Matt Mercer, communications director at the NCGOP, told Newsweek in a statement.
“The campaign feels very confident in its position, and we will deliver the Tar Heel State a third time on November 5.”
Newsweek reached out to the Harris campaign via email for comment on Monday.
Conservative political activist Charlie Kirk did not share Mercer’s confidence, saying on his podcast Monday that Trump was not safe in North Carolina when polling remained too close. A poll out Monday showed Harris leading in the state by 2.4 percent.
How North Carolina Could Affect the Winner
As one of seven battleground states, North Carolina has become a focal point for campaigning. Polls continuously show Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris on a near-equal footing.
Both candidates will be keen for the 16 Electoral College votes up for grabs in the state, which could push them past the 270 needed to win.
Trump has won the state in the past two elections, with former President Barack Obama as the last Democrat to win it in 2008.
If Trump were to win North Carolina, he could get over the 270 line by swaying Pennsylvania and Georgia or a combination of one of these with two others: Michigan, Arizona, and/or Wisconsin.
Harris might have an easier time, with five potential three swing state wins, including North Carolina.
Should Trump lose North Carolina, he would need three of the big hitters in Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan or Arizona, as well as a fourth swing state.
Conversely, Harris might still have an easier time reaching 270 votes without North Carolina, with another five combinations of three other states, including Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin.
However, until election night, the outcome remains unclear as polls continue showing a tight race.
Despite the narrowing gap in registered voters, McLennan said that younger people might be bad news for the GOP, as many had chosen not to register along party lines for “a variety of reasons” but often leaned Democratic.
“I suspect that voter registration numbers may tell one story, but come Election Day, the North Carolina presidential vote may be even tighter than 2020 when 75,000 votes separated Joe Biden and Donald Trump,” he added.
