On September 5 of this year, the British magazine The Economist published in its pages that the election of Bolivian judges at the highest level has been a disaster, because the courts have become a prize that political factions want to control, not a neutral arbiter. Since Evo Morales and Luis Arce know that the candidacy of the party in power may be decided in the courts, they both want to control the courts, and this opened the door to an attempted coup d’état led by the military.
In Mexico, the outgoing government of President López Obrador made the constitutional reform in the last minute of the mandate, something highly unusual, to subject judges to a popular vote. We are already in the details of instrumentation. Senator Fernández Noroña already organized a raffle in the legislative chamber, with which he elects unknown people to replace thousands of men and women who have competed and obtained their positions by merit in the judicial career. For the left, professional merit means nothing. The retired minister Medina Mora, in a round table at Harvard University, commented with his colleagues that the current system requires 8 on average and letters of recommendation from five neighbors, which caused laughter from those present.
Well, now the signs that we asked for a couple of weeks ago in this space are much clearer. Dr. President Sheinbaum is highly committed to AMLO’s last-minute reforms. A brave judge from Coatzacoalcos, Nancy Juárez, ordered President Sheinbaum and the Official Gazette of the Federation to suppress the publication of the judicial reform. President Sheinbaum has counterattacked as President López Obrador would have done: discrediting the judge, litigating in the media and denying that she was informed of the aforementioned judicial resolution.
These lawsuits do not contribute to growth. The International Monetary Fund revised the growth forecast for Mexico downward by 1.5 percentage points. We will grow only 1.3 percent in 2024, according to the IMF. At the same time, he revised the economic growth of the United States upward by half a point. Our English-speaking neighbors to the north, the fund says, will grow at 2.5 percent this year.
In 1999, the professor of many ITAM economists, Isaac Katz Burstin, published his book called “The Constitution and the economic development of Mexico” (Cal y Arena Editions). Speaking about the Judiciary, Isaac said: “One of the essential conditions for an economy to develop in a system of freedoms that translates into sustained economic growth is to have an independent and impartial Judiciary that guarantees the private rights of property, as well as the fulfillment of contracts between individuals, and even more, between them and the government (…) In the recent history of Mexico, the Judicial Branch has traditionally been subordinated de facto to the Executive Branch, which has translated in uncertainty about the protection of property rights and the fulfillment of contracts. Since there was no guarantee that the Judiciary would act independently, the risk of investing in Mexico has been high, resulting in economic growth rates lower than potential.”
From 1999 to 2018, the situation improved. The Judiciary was more independent. There were autonomous constitutional bodies that defended many individual rights. We were growing at a mediocre 2.5 percent on average. We would like it today.
We are not going to grow as long as the government advances in its authoritarianism. The speech, now converted into law, that state energy companies will be favored in any public decision over private ones, is only one of the several nails in the coffin of economic growth.
We are lucky because China is in bad condition, and this allows the hangover from Mexico’s bad policies to be mild. Who will be the winners? Other small countries nearby. Central America, the Caribbean nations, northern South America, and even distant countries like Chile and Argentina, will occupy the space we have today in many sectors of the United States. Even expensive regions like Europe will benefit from our folly. Brazil will grow at 3.5 percent this year, says the IMF. Not Bolivia or Mexico: we at 1.6 and 1.3 percent, if things go well for us.
