Race 9: $5m Group 1 Cox Plate (2040m), 5.10pm
The favourite: Japanese raider Prognosis is world-class. He has twice run group 1 placings behind last year’s Cox Plate winner, Romantic Warrior, in Hong Hong, and is a group 2 winner in Japan. That is serious form. He is also from a country in which races are run at top speed, so frontrunner Pride Of Jenni might actually be a help rather than a hindrance.
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The cult hero: Moonee Valley will be a rockin’ when Pride Of Jenni skips away by 10 lengths on the back straight. Her catch-me-if-you-can tactics have captivated fans inside and outside the racing bubble. Then it is heart-in-mouth stuff hoping she can hold on. It will be a great story if she does.
The threats: Don’t be put off by Via Sistina’s mishap on Tuesday morning when she dumped jockey James McDonald and ran three extra laps of the Valley circuit. If trainer Chris Waller says she will be fine, she will be fine. The slight query is whether she can be close enough to Pride Of Jenni at the 600m mark. If she can, she can win. Mr Brightside ran second in last year’s Cox Plate to Romantic Warrior and is going as well as ever. But he has struggled in the past to run down Pride Of Jenni over 2000m.
The three-year-olds: This looks like a year for the grown-ups. Both three-year-olds Evaporate and Broadsiding ran similar races in the Caulfield Guineas – third and fourth. It usually takes a champion three-year-old to win a Cox Plate. Not sure either of these two are in that category.
The roughie: A case can be made for Kovalica. He was unlucky behind Ceolwulf in the Epsom Handicap, then ran a strong second at his next start behind Attrition in the Hill Stakes.
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Not this year: Royal Patronage looks a rung below this elite level, while Docklands looks better suited to 1600m.
How it unfolds: Royal Patronage will look to hold out Pride Of Jenni around the first bend before taking a sit, while Evaporate will most likely roll forward. Mr Brightside should land three back the fence, while the rest will jostle for a conservative slot. Then the fun begins. If Royal Patronage and Evaporate try and cart the field up to Pride Of Jenni, they might cook their own chances. So, rivals will look for Damian Lane on Prognosis to make a sustained run and get a tow into the race.
Tim Habel
Cox Plate tips: 1st Via Sistina (No.7), 2nd Prognosis (No.2), 3rd Pride Of Jenni (No.6)
Habel says: Via Sistina is a world-class mare with three wins and three seconds in group 1 2000m races. Given she has recovered from Tuesday’s track work she is the yardstick.
Habel’s best: Oscar’s Fortune (Race 7, No.2) – Classy WA sprinter, run down late resuming at Caulfield. Undefeated second-up, looks well-placed.
Habel’s next best: Firestorm (Race 10, No.6)- Will appreciate the class drop. Finished strongly in the group 1 Epsom Handicap.
Habel’s roughie: Von Hauke (Race 8, No.2) – Promising galloper rising in grade but looking for the 1600m now and primed for a peak run third up.
Danny Russell
Cox Plate tips: 1st Prognosis (No.2), 2nd Pride Of Jenni (No.6), 3rd Via Sistina (No.7), 4th Mr Brightside (No.1)
Russell says: Can see a scenario in which Prognosis nabs Pride of Jenni on the line. Via Sistina and Mr Brightside will be heading up the next wave.
Cox Plate trifecta play: 1st: 2 2nd: 6, 7 3rd: 1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8
Russell’s best: Prognosis (Race 9, No.2) – Being Japanese, he will be suited by Pride Of Jenni’s catch-me-if-you-can style.
Russell’s next best: Plenty Of Ammo (Race 8, No.11) – Lightly raced, loads of potential and this looks a weak Crystal Mile.
Russell’s roughie: Bittercreek (Race 2, No.1) – Forgive last start on a slippery, skating surface at Flemington. Expecting big improvement.
Cox Plate day quaddie: 1st leg: 2, 5. 2nd leg: 7, 11. 3rd leg: 2. 4th leg: 1, 3, 6. 8.
