Israeli tanks are reported to be massing on the border with southern Lebanon. Its special forces are already active in Hezbollah territory.
A ground offensive is widely expected even if its extent is not yet known.
Despite the international clamour to agree a ceasefire, Israel thinks it has Hezbollah on the ropes and is in no mood to let up. Even with America, its most important ally, leading the ceasefire Âchorus (with our very own Keir Starmer playing the part of Little Sir Echo) Israel is not to be dissuaded.
Nobody should be surprised. Hezbollah, bank-rolled and armed by Iran, is the world’s most powerful terrorist group. Stronger even than the government or military of Lebanon – which it has destroyed as a functioning country – it is committed to the destruction of Israel.
It has fired thousands of rockets and missiles at Israel since Hamas, another Iranian-backed terrorist group (though nowhere near as Âformidable), mounted its Âbarbarous incursion into Israel almost a year ago.
Lebanon’s Hezbollah deputy leader Sheik Naim Qassem delivers an address from an unknown location, days after Hezbollah chief Hussein Hassan Nasrallah was killed in an Israeli air strike
A satellite image showing the site of the Israeli air strike that killed Nasrallah in Beirut on Sunday
Over 60,000 Israelis have had to flee their homes in the north of the country, which borders Hezbollah’s heartland of southern Lebanon.
Israel has seized the chance to cripple its mortal foe. A 21-day ceasefire, as urged by the international community, would have led nowhere – but would have given ÂHezbollah time to regroup.
Western commentators like to emphasise Hezbollah’s military prowess and remind us how Israel has not always come off best in previous encounters. They do not seem to realise how much Israel learned from that and how weakened Hezbollah is.
In the aftermath of the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, the longtime Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, claimed Israel was ‘shaking and trembling’ in fear and ‘weaker than a spider’s web’.
He called on all Iran’s terrorist proxies in the region, from Syria to Iraq to Yemen and (of course) Lebanon, to join in an ‘historic and decisive’ war to eliminate the ‘Zionist entity’.
These words have never sounded more hollow. Nasrallah, who operated from a residential district of Beirut because he knew he was a marked man, was killed in an Israeli air strike on Friday.
Even President Biden, cheerleader for the ceasefire clique, had to admit there was a ‘measure of justice’ in his death. How could he say otherwise since, for decades, Nasrallah had presided over a terrorist killing machine?
The inevitable and regrettable civilian casualties are on him and his kind. There are fewer of his ‘kind’ than there were, however. Israel has decapitated a large chunk of the Hezbollah leadership in a series of remarkable Âoperations which illustrate just how far Israeli intelligence has penetrated its upper echelons.
The sabotage of Hezbollah pagers and walkie-talkies — previously thought to be safer than using smartphones — killed 37 and wounded around 3,000 ranking officials and fighters. One observer quipped that Hezbollah was now being run by people not important enough to have pagers or walkie-talkies.
Targeted bombing has taken out at least a dozen senior military commanders and many more junior ones, again showing just how much Israel knows about Hezbollah’s leading lights.
Firefighters extinguish the fire that broke out in an apartment after the Israeli army carried out an air strike in BeirutÂ
Residents inspect a damaged car that was hit in the air strike yesterday
It has also seriously degraded the terror group’s stockpile of rockets and missiles, though it still has plenty in reserve. Finding a successor to Nasrallah who can match his authority and reputation in the Arab world will be well nigh impossible, however. Potential leaders are either dead or in hiding, fearing further Israeli airstrikes.
Of course, Hezbollah is still no pushover. Its fighters are battle-hardened, its arsenal immense. We do not know if Israel plans a limited incursion to take control of some border areas, or aims to push Hezbollah back to north of the Litani river – about 18 miles from the Israeli border – which would reduce its ability to rain down missiles on northern Israel and allow the IDF to capture much of its arsenal.
But whatever Israel has in store, Hezbollah is reeling from two self-inflicted Âmistakes: it seriously underestimated Israel’s Âcapabilities and it grossly overestimated the willingness of its Iranian paymasters to come to its aid. That is Nasrallah’s miserable legacy.
Despite Hezbollah’s relentless missile barrage, the damage it has managed to wreak has been minimal, the deaths surprisingly and thankfully few — in stark contrast to the toll Israel is taking on its enemy.
Yet, as it discovers Hezbollah is no match for Israel’s firepower, technology and intelligence, Iran has been sitting on its hands.
The usual bellicose rhetoric emanates from Tehran but actions to support its Âtroubled proxy are not forthcoming. A terrible revenge for Nasrallah’s assassination is promised. But there were similar threats when two months ago Israel assassinated Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in an official guest house in Tehran. ÂNothing happened.
Yesterday, I spoke to Professor Ali Ansari, director of the Institute for Iranian Studies at St Andrews University. He confirmed what I suspected: Iran has very few options when it comes to helping the likes of Hezbollah.
Southern Lebanon is almost 1,000 miles from Tehran. Iran can hardly send a land army to aid its beleaguered allies. Israel’s state-of-the-art jet fighters would control the skies against Iran’s ancient airforce and could do a lot more Âdamage to it than vice versa.
Fears of a wider war in the Middle East are understandable. But despite all the dire predictions, nobody ever Âoutlines what it would entail.
The Arab Gulf states are as hostile to Iran as Israel. This mitigates the threat of the ‘oil weapon’ which caused the West so much pain in the 1973 and 1979 Middle East crises, when oil prices quadrupled, throwing Europe and America into recession.
The truth is that the Iranian regime is scared. It is unpopular at home. And that dislike could quickly turn to hate if it launches an unnecessary war which most Iranians, who do not share their leaders’ anti-Israel obsession, would not support. It’s also fearful for its own wellbeing.
If Israel can kill Nasrallah in Beirut and Haniyeh in Tehran (their own capital!), how safe is anybody in the Iranian government? No surprise, then, that even Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, was reported this week to have been moved to a top-secret safe house (though Iranians must wonder if anything is secret from Israel these days).
Iranian leaders must also know that if it really did threaten Israel, the West – for all its criticisms of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu‘s bellicose approach – would come to its aid.
Iran found that out the hard way, when Israel’s allies Ârallied round to neutralise its missile and drone attack Âearlier this year. Even Sunni Arab states pitched in to defend Israel.
To leave Iran in no doubt that Israel would not be on its own, the US has already deployed two massive naval carrier groups in the region: one at the southern end of the Red Sea, the other in the eastern Mediterranean.
Israel could still come unstuck if it overreaches – as it has before in Lebanon – but, for now, the initiative is with it and, however strong the calls for a ceasefire, it will do what it perceives to be in its best interests. Something it always does because in every struggle its very Âexistence is at stake.
So Iran is cowed for now. Israel will attempt to cut Hezbollah down to size, as it has Hamas. It cannot be destroyed completely. But it can be seriously defanged.
A nuclear-armed Iran, however, would be an entirely Âdifferent matter, which is why, whatever it takes, it must never be allowed the bomb.
