Vice President Kamala Harris‘ poll numbers rebounded after replacing President Joe Biden at the top of the Democratic ticket over the summer, though they haven’t moved much since, with the most recent high-quality surveys still showing a tight race against former President Donald Trump with less than five weeks until Election Day.
The 2024 presidential campaign is shifting to into the home stretch as most voters have made up their mind about who they’re voting for, and as early voting in 20 states is already underway. The candidates have limited time to win over the handful of undecided voters left, and now need to focus on motivating their respective bases to turnout.
Democrats faced dire poll numbers over the summer, when concerns about Biden’s age and acuity exploded after his dismal debate performance in June. These numbers ultimately prompted Biden to withdraw from the race, leaving Harris as the nominee.
Record-breaking fundraising and a stronger debate performance against Trump helped Harris bring the race back to a toss-up, but the two candidates are still divided in the most critical battlegrounds ahead of November.
RONDA CHURCHILL/AFP via Getty Images; Scott Olson/Getty Images
The map below shows where Harris and Trump are leading in the most recent polls as of October 2, based on the polling aggregate from 538.
Newsweek reached out to the Harris and Trump campaigns for comment via email.
States shaded purple are the most critical battlegrounds, where both Harris and Trump have held minor leads in recent polls. Harris and Trump may have small leads in those states, but they are well within the margin for error, and forecasters view these states as pure tossups.
Harris has narrow leads in the Rust Belt swing states and Nevada, according to 538’s polling aggregate. She leads Michigan by 1.8 points, Nevada by 1 point, Pennsylvania by 0.7 points and Wisconsin by 1.8 points.
Meanwhile, Trump is performing slightly better in the Sunbelt swing states. He leads Arizona by 1.4 points, Georgia by 1.2 points and North Carolina by 0.6 points, according to the aggregate.
States where either Democrats or Republicans are viewed as easy favorites are colored either a dull red or blue. Polls for Harris may not be available for those states, but they were won by their respective parties by double digits in 2020 and are not viewed as competitive.
States where either Harris or Trump has a single-digit lead are shaded a more vibrant red or blue.
For Republicans, this includes Florida and Texas, potentially competitive states where Democrats are hoping to overperform their 2020 showing. It also includes Ohio and Iowa, two states easily won by Trump four years ago, but where recent polls suggest his lead may have shrunk from the summer.
In Iowa, for instance, a Selzer & Co./The Des Moines Register poll conducted among 656 likely voters from September 8 to September 11 showed Trump only up four points over Harris (47 percent to 43 percent), compared to a June poll that showed him up 18 points over Biden.
Meanwhile, four Democratic-leaning states have produced polls in the single digits in the past few weeks. This includes Minnesota, the home of Harris’ running mate Governor Tim Walz. Polls show the race in Minnesota as closer than it was four years ago, and experts previously told Newsweek it may be winnable for Republicans.
It also includes Virginia, where Republicans remain cautiously optimistic as early voting is underway. An Emerson College poll, conducted among 860 likely voters from September 22 to September 24, showed Harris up seven points (53 percent to 46 percent) in the commonwealth.
New Hampshire and New Mexico, which have backed Democrats in every presidential race since 2008, have also seen recent single-digit margins, though Harris remains favored in both.
