Donald Trump has lost his lead over Kamala Harris over which candidate is best placed to tackle inflation, while a lower proportion of Americans think the economy is getting worse, according to the latest Cook Political Report Swing State Project Survey.
For the survey, 2,941 voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin were polled by BSG and GS Strategy Group between September 19 and 25. In a head-to-head contest, the study found Harris has a wafer-thin 1-point lead over Trump, with 49 percent of the vote against the Republican candidate’s 48 percent.
“Harris has a lead within the margin of error in Arizona (+2), Michigan (+3), Nevada (+1), Pennsylvania (+1), and Wisconsin (+2). Trump is ahead 49% to 47% in Georgia, and the two candidates are tied at 49% in North Carolina,” the poll said.
Trump received a major boost this week when a series of polls released on Tuesday suggested he is on course for victory in the key swing states of Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia, though one did put him behind in Michigan. On Wednesday, Trump became the favorite to win November’s election, according to Betfair, a leading bookmaker, following the vice-presidential debate between Senator JD Vance and Governor Tim Walz the previous evening.
According to the latest Cook Political Report survey, Trump has a 5-point lead in the swing states over which candidate would be best to deal with the economy, with 50 percent support versus 45 percent for Harris. This is the same figure as in the last Cook Political Report Swing State poll conducted in August.
However, Trump’s lead on which candidate would be best at dealing with inflation evaporated over the same period, with the two rivals tied at 47 percent each, according to the latest poll. By contrast, in August, Trump lead on the issue by 6 points with 48 percent support against 42 percent for Harris. Some 60 percent of swing state voters said inflation is the part of the economy that “concerns them the most,” demonstrating the significance of this shift.
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In further bad news for Trump, who has made combatting inflation one of his key campaign priorities, the proportion of swing state voters who think the economy is “getting worse” has fallen since May.
In the September survey, 46 percent of those polled said the economy is either getting better or staying the same, against 54 percent who said it is getting worse. By contrast, Cook Political Report surveys of swing states in August and May found 57 percent and 62 percent of voters respectively thought inflation was getting worse.
The latest Cook Political Report said: “Today, the gap between those who think inflation is getting better or staying the same and those who think it’s getting worse is eight points — a 17-point decrease in economic pessimism over the last four months.
“And, while Trump is winning the 35% of voters who think the economy is getting ‘a lot worse’ by more than 50 points, Harris is holding her own with those who think inflation is ‘getting a little worse’ (42% to 55% for Trump), and leads Trump among the 46% of voters who think inflation is getting better or staying the same.”
Newsweek contacted representatives of the Donald Trump and Kamala Harris presidential election campaigns for comment via email.
A recent study by polling guru Nate Silver found 12 states have shifted more towards Harris over the past month, against seven that have moved more in Donald Trump’s direction.
