The field for the MLB postseason is set following Monday’s doubleheader between the New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves with two playoff spots at stake. Now that the field of 12 postseason contenders is set and the road to the World Series is underway, it’s time for MLB playoff predictions. Let’s immediately dive into our MLB postseason predictions 2024, projecting round-by-round all the way through the World Series.
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AL Wild Card: Baltimore Orioles sweep the Kansas City Royals
The Baltimore Orioles aren’t exactly entering the MLB postseason on a hot streak, performing like a .500 team since late July. Fortunately for Baltimore, Kansas City has also been treading water for the last two months. Baltimore is also getting healthy at the right time and it finished the regular season with a 4-2 record against Kansas City. With both teams lacking postseason experience and momentum, the Orioles’ significant talent advantage should swing this series.
AL WIld Card: Houston Astros survive Detroit Tigers in 3 games
The Detroit Tigers at least have a chance to make this a competitive American League Wild Card series because of Tarik Skubal. However, the Tigers lineup is still bottom-10 in OPS over the last two months whereas the Houston Astros have the second-best ERA in baseball over that span. Houston’s phenomenal bullpen, deeper rosters, postseason experience and home-field advantage will swing this series, but we do expect the young Tigers to make it close.
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NL Wild Card: San Diego Padres over Atlanta Braves in three games
The San Diego Padres have been one of the best teams in baseball for three months now. Acquisitions at the trade deadline turned this Padres bullpen into a huge strength, while the returns of Fernando Tatís Jr, Joe Musgrove and Yu Darvish provided much-needed support for the Padres lineup and rotation. San Diego is just playing outstanding baseball right now and it could lead to a very deep October run that goes further than many expect. As for the Atlanta Braves, for as incredible as it is that they made the playoffs despite the injuries, the run ends here with a Game 3 loss in San Diego.
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NL Wild Card: New York Mets knock out Milwaukee Brewers at home
The New York Mets made the MLB postseason in a year when not many expected it. Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Brewers seemingly flew under the radar all year. Milwaukee has been carried by its lineup and bullpen this season, but the club ended the regular season with a whimper at 13-13 in the last month. New York might’ve suffered a first-round postseason exit had it faced a team with strong front-line starters, but the Brewers don’t have that or momentum right now. We give the edge to New York, who goes into Milwaukee and takes Games 1 and 3.
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AL Division Series: New York Yankees take out Baltimore Orioles in 5 games
The New York Yankees have reached the American League Championship Series just once since 2020. They also finished the regular season with a losing head-to-head record against the Baltimore Orioles. However, there’s an added edge that comes with playing in Yankee Stadium during the MLB playoffs and the Orioles aren’t playing nearly as well as they were a few months ago. We do expect this Orioles vs Yankees ALDS series to go the distance, but postseason heroics from Juan Soto send the Yankees back to the ALCS with a win at Yankee Stadium.
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AL Division Series: Astros go the distance in close ALDS series win over Cleveland
October is about the bullpens and both the Houston Astros and Cleveland Guardians have that and then some. We do have some concerns about Yordan Alvarez (knee), but this Astros lineup proved itself down the stretch with the sixth-best OPS (.746) in the last six weeks of the regular season. As for the Guardians, while this team is great in clutch situations, great pitching can limit those opportunities. We expect the Astros and Guardians to go back and forth in all five games of this series before Houston finally takes it home and heads to the ALCS once again.
NL Division Series: Philadelphia Phillies take out the New York Mets in four
The Philadelphia Phillies haven’t been quite as dominant as we saw early in the season, but you can’t argue with the front-end talent. A Phillies playoff rotation of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez is exactly what you want taking on Francisco Lindor and this New York Mets lineup. This would be a classic NLDS matchup between the two rivalries, especially when comparing expectations for both clubs entering spring training. With that said, the edge goes to the better lineup and starting rotation. If the Mets upset the Phillies, it’s going to take a legendary series from Lindor. Of note, he went just 5-for-30 with a .167/.265/.233 slash line against Philadelphia’s pitching staff this season.
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NL Division Series: San Diego Padres stun the Los Angeles Dodgers in four games
Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and the rest of this very talented Los Angeles Dodgers roster give the team great World Series odds. However, there are some big reasons to worry about Los Angeles. Freddie Freeman suffered a significant ankle injury before the MLB playoffs, a potentially significant blow to this Dodgers lineup. Meanwhile, a pitching staff without Tyler Glasnow, Clayton Kershaw, Gavin Stone and River Ryan will also have Yoshinobu Yamamoto on a strict schedule. All of that sets up San Diego to pull off the biggest surprise in the MLB postseason.
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ALCS: New York Yankees win the AL pennant in 7 games over Houston
Not only will the New York Yankees win their first ALCS game since 2019, they will head back to the World Series for the first time since 2009. The Astros are probably the best-equipped team to handle New York in October, arguably boasting the second-best bullpen in the playoffs. Both clubs have plenty of postseason experience to lean on, but we’re giving the edge to the Yankees lineup with both Juan Soto and Aaron Judge delivering seven-game stretches that warrant ALCS MVP.
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NLCS: San Diego Padres over Philadelphia Phillies in 6 games
The Philadelphia Phillies owned the San Diego Padres in the regular season, posting a 5-1 record against the club. However, all of that came by mid-June. Since the last Padres vs Phillies game back on June 19, there’s been a superior team. From June 20 through the end of the regular season, the Padres recorded 8 more wins than Philadelphia with a better ERA (3.65 vs 4.42) and a slightly higher OPS. San Diego has just as much star power as the Phillies lineup and the Padres pitching will swing this series.
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World Series: San Diego Padres beat the New York Yankees
Needless to say, we’re bullish on the San Diego Padres. The moment feels a bit reminiscent of what happened to the Washington Nationals after Bryce Harper left. It would be an especially fitting World Series matchup, with Soto facing the team that traded him away. Since the MLB trade deadline, the Padres have had the better lineup (.761 OPS vs .743 OPS, starting pitching (3.68 ERA and .233 BAA s 4.02 ERA and .246 BAA) and bullpen (3.19 ERA vs 3.67 ERA). After taking out the Braves, Dodgers and Phillies we have San Diego capping this incredible season off with a World Series title in seven games. Fernando Tatîs Jr wins World Series MVP, but it’s rookie Jackson Merrill’s late-game heroics at Yankee Stadium that are remembered even more.
