Trisha Calvarese, Representative Lauren Boebert‘s Democratic challenger, has raised more than half a million dollars in the first 16 days of October in the race for Colorado’s 4th Congressional District seat, according to OpenSecrets.
Boebert, a Colorado Republican, announced in December 2023 in a Facebook video that she would be running for reelection to the House of Representatives in Colorado’s 4th District, as opposed to the 3rd, where she has held office since 2021. Colorado’s 4th District is currently being represented by GOP Representative Ken Buck who announced in November that he would not be seeking reelection.
The eastern district is the most Republican in the state, with a 2023 Cook Partisan Voting Index rating it R+13, compared to the 3rd District’s R+7 rating. In 2022, Buck won his seat with over 60 percent support, which was notably less than in 2020, when he secured 74 percent of the vote. A Democrat last represented the district in 2008, when Betsy Markey defeated Republican incumbent Marilyn Musgrave. Markey only served one term.
Boebert, who is a staunch supporter of Donald Trump, the Republican nominee, who endorsed her in the race, is heavily favored to win.
However, Calvarese has made significant strides in fundraising since the start of the race. Her latest filing on October 16, following the September 30 report, shows an increase of $560,000, bringing her total from $3.18 million to $3.74 million.
Despite her fundraising gains, Boebert has raised more than her Democratic challenger, with a total of $4.48 million. The latest October 16 filing shows Boebert and Calvarese with similar cash on hand, at $295,502 and $256,960, respectively.
Newsweek has reached out to Boebert’s and Calvarese’s press teams for comment via email on Saturday.
Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
Over the 16-day period, Calvarese’s campaign received more than 31,800 contributions from 18,000 individual donors, her campaign told Colorado Politics.
House races typically have fewer polls, especially in less competitive districts. However, polling aggregates from FiveThirtyEight and The Hill also show strong, unwavering support for Boebert in the upcoming election. There haven’t been any reported polls since Boebert won the primary in June.
The Economist‘s latest prediction model of the race between Boebert and Calvarese shows Boebert winning in a landslide. The model, which includes updated polling data, voting history in the district, candidate fundraising and national polling, ran 10,001 simulations of the election. As of Saturday, the model projected Boebert with a +20.3 percent vote margin, indicating that “Boebert wins >99 in 100 times” in securing the seat.
Democrats and Republicans are battling for control of the House of Representatives, viewed as a toss-up by forecasters less than two weeks before the November 5 election.
Republicans are defending their narrow eight-seat majority, which includes more than a dozen GOP-held seats won by President Joe Biden four years earlier. Like the presidential race between Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump, elections experts expect control of Congress to come down to the wire.
According to the Cook Political Report, there are 25 toss-up races as of Saturday. Eleven of those seats are held by Democrats, while 14 are held by Republicans.
