Tyler Reddick went from upside down last week at Las Vegas and needing two perfect races, if not a win outright to advance to the NASCAR championship race, to starting on the pole Sunday at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
Let’s be clear:
Any scenario that advances Reddick without a win would require finishing in the top-five of every stage over the next two races so starting from the lead on Sunday is exactly what the 23XI Racing No. 45 needs at a minimum.
“If (everyone else) has two calm races the next two races, it’s probably too great a deficit,” Reddick said. “But every other race in these playoffs, something crazy happens. I wouldn’t rule that out. I think for us to advance, we need to be top three in the stages and score a bunch of points at the end of these races.”
Denny Hamlin finds himself in a similar scenario too and will start Sunday from the outside front row.
A win would simplify both of their respective mathematical equations but there is a points avenue to NASCAR’s version of the final four at Phoenix Raceway.
“You just have to have one or two of the guys up front stub their toe and you be elite,” Hamlin said. “That would be the only way.”
Where playoff drivers start
1. Tyler Reddick
2. Kyle Larson
3. Christopher Bell
4. Denny Hamlin
7. Chase Elliott
20. Ryan Blaney
25. William Byron
26. Joey Logano
Must win mentality
The math is the easiest possible calculation for Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney in that they have to do nothing short of a win over these next two races at Homestead and Martinsville Speedway.
Blaney ran over debris in the crash that eliminated both Reddick and Chase Elliott from contention last week at Vegas, placing all three in a disadvantageous position to make the championship race. Blaney, the reigning Cup Series champion, chalked it up to circumstances.
“I feel like we’re controlling everything we can as a group very well. We’ve just been wrong spot, wrong time, and it’s kind of hurt us a little bit,” Blaney said. “We’re still in it. We still have a chance in two weeks with two really good tracks for us so hopefully we can step up.”
To wit, Blaney says his team and crew chief Jonathan Hassler very quickly turns the pages on scenarios like what happened last week.
“This group is so good at just like putting the past behind us, good, bad or indifferent and just moving on, like, ‘What’s the next job? What do we have to do have to do next?’ And we’re ready for that this weekend.” Blaney said. “We’ve done a great job. It’s just been a little bit more of a rougher year than I would’ve liked to have nothing really much of our doing. Just the way it goes sometimes.”
For his part, Elliott has kind of gone under the radar all season, because he has just one win but the third most points scored over the course of the season.
“I feel like, overall, our year has been really solid except for winning,” Elliott said. “When I look at it, there is a lot to be proud of but we just haven’t won as many races as we would like to and outside of that, there is a lot of really good stuff to our season.”
To wit, he feels like he is capable of winning, even if there is only one of those over his last 69 starts.
“This is the first time I’ve been through this or have experienced this,” Elliott said. “So having done this before and been in this spot, I think that it gives me a sense of peace in knowing how to handle it and knowing that the team can get it done.”
It ain’t over
On one hand, if you look at the standings, William Byron, Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell look safe but here is another way to look at it.
Should Hamlin, Reddick, Blaney and Hamlin win on Sunday, they move up and bump the lowest of the three that do not have a win and were in on points.
Game that out.
That would then move, as of right now, Byron below the cutline and he is just eight points behind Larson in what would then become the points battle to advance so it’s not over yet and they know it. It’s also why Bell was so frustrated in not winning Vegas last week.
“For us, we’re the third guy in line there so we feel like we need to win too,” Byron said. “I feel very capable at these next two tracks. If maybe we were in (Bell or Larson’s position) maybe we start counting points, and it doesn’t mean we don’t care about wins but winning would take care of it.”
Short of Logano, who won his way in, Bell is in the most advantageous spot and doesn’t feel comfortable at all.
“You’re never really safe,” Bell said. “The three of us William, Kyle and myself have kind of, the way that the cards fell, we’re kind of essentially point racing each other, and the guys below that are far enough below, they’re basically out of the points and essentially racing for wins.
“Certainly, we’ll know more once we get through Homestead on Sunday night, but, right now, we’re planning on there being three winners and the three of us – William, Kyle and myself – are racing for that last points spot. There’s a good chance William, Kyle or myself could win this weekend and it could change.
“But plus 42 (points) sounds great until you realize every time someone wins, that cutline shrinks more, more and more, or that gap to the cutline. You’re never safe and it’s going to be a battle. It’s going to be a battle all the way until the checkered flag at Martinsville.”
Starting lineup
- Tyler Reddick
- Kyle Larson
- Christopher Bell
- Denny Hamlin
- Ricky Stenhouse, Jr.
- Martin Truex, Jr.
- Chase Elliott
- Bubba Wallace
- Daniel Hemric
- Justin Haley
- Alex Bowman
- Josh Berry
- Chase Briscoe
- Ty Gibbs
- Carson Hocevar
- Noah Gragson
- Kyle Busch
- Brad Keselowski
- Zane Smith
- Ryan Blaney
- Chris Buescher
- Ross Chastain
- Daniel Suarez
- Michael McDowell
- William Byron
- Joey Logano
- Kaz Grala
- Erik Jones
- John Hunter Nemechek
- Austin Dillon
- Todd Gilliland
- AJ Allmendinger
- Corey LaJoie
- Harrison Burton
- Ryan Preece
- Austin Cindric
- JJ Yeley
- Chad Finchum
Matt Weaver is a Motorsports Insider for Sportsnaut. Follow him on Twitter.
