The re-election of Donald Trump as president of the United States could have serious consequences for the mexican economyas they warned experts.
According to Dana Bodnar, economist at Atradius, the possible return of republican to the White Houseand with it the implementation of its aggressive trade policythey would have a negative impact that would lead to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of Mexico to be up to 2 percent lower in 2026, as well as keeping the Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) by less than $30 billion during his tenure, compared to a scenario under a Kamala Harris administration.
“Mexico would suffer the most severe consequences of a Trump re-election in the short term. He Mexican GDP would be more than 2 percent lower in 2026 than under the government of Harrisand would finish 1 percent lower in 2028,” Bodnar said.
The economist explained in his analysis that the central axis of the Trump trade policy would be based on the imposition of strong duty to the imported goodsnot only from Chinabut also from others business partners important of USA.
According to projections, these duty would reach 60 percent for chinese products and 10 percent for other key countries, such as Mexico. This measure, added to the retaliatory responses expected of the affected business partnerswould drag the global tradereducing the volume of the exports of goods by 4 percent globally by the end of his term in 2029, compared to Harris.
direct impact
Jason Tengay, deputy head of emerging markets at Capital Economics, warned that recent Trump threats of imposing tariffs on Mexico’s automotive sector could just be a pre-election tactic or a strategy to obtain concessions. However, if implemented, they would seriously impact the mexican economycausing a drop of up to 0.6 percent of the real GDP For every 10 percent decrease in vehicle exports.
“Even more worrying is that these duty could be the prelude to the dismantling of the T-MEC“, and explained that there is a risk that the duty also cover the vehicle parts. Pieces often cross the border up to eight times, so there would be the threat of a significant accumulation of tariffs. “The supply chains “They would become unviable,” he added.
In contrast, Esteban Polidura, director of Investment Strategy for the Americas at Julius Baer, He highlighted that “although the Trump trade policy is more intense than that of Harris, they rule out an impact on the GDP of Mexico.
“While there is a real risk that duty affect the tradeit is also possible that the tax cuts in the US promote the growthwhich could indirectly benefit Mexico,” he indicated.
The expert foresees for the US a growth additional 0.5 percent in 2025 with respect to a different scenario. The mexican economy could capture that additional growth next year, and even more if the Trump’s trade approach concentrates on China instead of Mexico.
Paralysis: Moody’s
For its part, Moody’s Ratings warned that yes USA impose a general 10 percent tariff on all world imports In Trump’s first year, the mexican economy It would be paralyzed in 2025 and would slowly recover towards 2026.
If it materializes, it would also affect the company itself. American economysaid; However, concerns that it serves as a “back door” to chinese exports It is already a prominent topic in political circles Democrats and republicans.
Moody’s Ratings insisted that frictions over increasing the content Chinese incorporated into the exports from Mexico to the United States could trigger rounds of duty of retaliation. “A limited trade war could derail the economies of the United States and Mexico”, he noted.
