Democratic hopes of retaining control of the U.S. Senate are slim but not entirely without hope, according to a recent update from The Cook Political Report.
Democrats control the Senate with a razor-thin 51-seat majority. The retirement of independent Senator Joe Manchin in West Virginia, who caucuses with Democrats, all but ensures that at least one of the seats will flip to Republican in January.
Polls also indicate that incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester trails Republican challenger Tim Sheehy by a solid margin in Montana, making a change of control in the upper chamber appear likely, with two weeks until Election Day.
On Monday, the Cook report shifted Pennsylvania’s Senate race away from incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey and toward Republican challenger Dave McCormick, worsening the forecast for Democrats by turning the race into a “toss up.”
Drazen Zigic
“Though many of the fundamentals may still very slightly favor Casey, this race is now close enough that it belongs more in the Toss Up column than in Lean Democrat alongside Arizona and Nevada, which have clearly become tougher lifts for the GOP,” Cook editor Jessica Taylor wrote in Monday’s update.
The new report also included what could be a small silver lining for Democrats, with Republican incumbent Senator Deb Fischer’s advantage over independent candidate Dan Osborn in Nebraska being downgraded from “likely Republican” to “leans Republican.”
While Osborn has said that he intends to caucus with neither major party if elected to the Senate, a loss by Fischer could put GOP control in doubt. If the caucuses are evenly split, the vice president—either Minnesota Democratic Governor Tim Walz or Ohio Republican U.S. Senator JD Vance—would cast tying votes in the next session.
“This year’s most surprising contest is undoubtedly Nebraska,” wrote Taylor. “Two-term Sen. Deb Fischer has had to battle back a surprisingly strong challenge from independent union leader Dan Osborn.”
Newsweek reached out for comment to the Fischer and Osborn campaigns via email on Tuesday night.
Polling in the Nebraska race, most of which has been sponsored by the candidates themselves, has shown wildly different results depending on the partisan lean of the pollsters.
A recent Fischer campaign-sponsored poll from Torchlight Strategies showed the Republican leading by 7 percentage points, while a SurveyUSA poll sponsored by Osborn’s campaign showed the independent up by 6 points.
“Osborn at 50% in [a] poll his campaign sponsored feels far too rosy, and the truth probably lies somewhere between these surveys,” Taylor wrote. “In other words, Fischer is probably leading but by much less than she should be.”
The most recent nonpartisan poll of the Nebraska Senate race, from The Bullfinch Group and The Independent Center, showed Osborn leading Fischer by 5 points among likely voters early this month.
