More than a year into Israel’s war against Hamas, Israel has taken out many of the Palestinian militant group’s most senior commanders, but is clear: the fighting isn’t done yet.
One of Hamas’ surviving leaders now under the spotlight is Khaled Meshaal, the former head of Hamas’ political wing who held onto the position for more than two decades from 1996.
Late last week, Israel said that it had killed one of its most-wanted targets, Yahya Sinwar, in Gaza. “Eliminated: Yahya Sinwar,” the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said in a brief statement. His death was confirmed by prominent Israeli politicians.
“Today, evil has suffered a heavy blow, but the task before us is not yet complete,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a video address. “The return of our hostages is an opportunity to achieve all our goals and it brings the end of the war closer.”
IDF spokesperson, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, described Sinwar as “responsible” for the October 7 Hamas attacks that killed around 1,200 people over a year ago. Another 251 people of all ages were taken as hostages into Gaza, and more than 100 remain in the strip. Around a third of these hostages have been deemed dead, according to Israeli authorities.
“It was Yahya Sinwar who decided to wage war with Israel,” Hagari said.
More than a year of war between Hamas and Israel in Gaza has devastated the densely populated territory. According to Hamas-run health authorities in the strip, more than 42,600 Palestinians have been killed in the fighting. These figures do not distinguish between civilians and combatants.
But in the post-Sinwar world, questions are bubbling up about who will lead and who Israel has left to target among the senior echelons of the militant group.
AP Photo/Osama Faisal, File
Israel has done real damage to the group, and to Lebanese-based, Iran-backed Hezbollah it is also fighting from the north of Israel. The Israeli military killed Hezbollah secretary-general Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut’s southern suburbs in late September.
Both Hamas and Hezbollah are categorized as terrorist organizations by Israel, the U.S. and multiple Western governments.
Hamas’ political bureau, aligned with Hezbollah, has pledged to fight on. It said on Friday that “Hamas each time became stronger and more popular,” and its slain leaders “became an icon for future generations to continue the journey towards a free Palestine.”
Qatar-based Meshaal is now the most “prominent Hamas leader in the arena,” Israeli military historian Guy Aviad told Newsweek. He has a wealth of experience high-up in the organization, and of those leaders still away from the Gaza Strip, Meshaal will feature close to the top of Israel’s priority list, Aviad said.
The IDF declined to comment when approached by Newsweek.
Meshaal was replaced by Ismail Haniyeh in the role in 2017. Haniyeh was assassinated in the Iranian capital by Israel in late July 2024.
Current thinking indicates Meshaal may step back up into his old position at least temporarily, suggested Michael Milshtein, an expert in Palestinian studies at Tel Aviv University and retired head of the Palestinian Affairs department of the Israel Defense Forces’ military intelligence body.
The “important decision-making” will likely be made by Meshaal and Khalil al-Hayya, the deputy head of the political bureau in Gaza, Milshtein told Newsweek. There is certainly a possibility that Meshaal reprises his old role, agreed Aviad, and that al-Hayya takes over the political leadership inside the Gaza Strip.
Inside the Palestinian group, Milshtein said, there are hopes that Meshaal and al-Hayya will have a better relationship than the soured exchanges between Meshaal and Sinwar.
Others are more skeptical of Meshaal’s future. “He has so many reasons to stay in Qatar, not be the leader and not be the target,” said Beni Sabti, a researcher with the Institute for National Security Studies, an Israeli think tank.
Israel has already targeted Meshaal with poison, in an ill-fated assassination attempt in Amman back in 1997, infuriating Jordan’s then-King Hussein before handing over the antidote. It may make little sense to the Hamas leader, who has spent very little time in Gaza or the West Bank since leaving the latter as a child, to go back into the fray and court more Israeli attention, Sabti told Newsweek.
Perhaps most interesting will be how Meshaal’s relationship with Iran develops in the coming months. Meshaal was a “persona non grata in Iran” who avoided visiting the country, said Aviad, having what Milshtein described as very poor relations with Tehran.
There is “no doubt” that Haniyeh’s and Sinwar’s deaths damaged Tehran’s grip on Hamas, argued Milshtein. Iran may now look to bolster its ties with al-Hayya as a replacement for Sinwar, rather than attempt to improve its link to Meshaal, he said.
Israel will likely have its eyes on the remaining senior officials in Gaza, including Yahya Sinwar’s brother, Muhammed. Analysts believe he will take over Hamas’ military wing and be key in efforts to rebuild the organization, alongside Izz al Din al Haddad, the head of Hamas’ Gaza City military brigade.
The U.S.-based think tank, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) described Haddad as the “most senior surviving Hamas military commander in the northern Strip,” and has fought in each major war against Israel.
“Those two are the prominent military leaders of the military wing of Hamas in the Strip itself,” Aviad said.
