Far from subsiding the firestorm that devastates Loop and the Lebanonit seems to be getting worse. Those who believed that the decapitation of Hamas and Hezbollah would facilitate a ceasefire and the start of peace talks It seems that they have not been very successful. It has never been easy to predict in times of war.
Conflict analyst Audrey Kurth Cronin told the magazine Foreign Affairs last August that “it seemed unlikely that a decapitation strategy in which the leadership of a terrorist group was detained or eliminated could work with Hamas.” And this is because historically The terrorist organizations that have disappeared due to the elimination of their leadership were smallvery hierarchical and forged around the cult of personality of their leaders. Furthermore, they did not contemplate, as unnecessary, a viable succession plan. This is not the case with Hamas if we look at its characteristics. It is a terrorist organization that is solidly established in the Gaza Strip, with a history of more than 40 years, with an extensive structure that includes a large network of contacts – including international ones – and that has demonstrated the ability to replace key leaders in critical moments and under pressure. Knowing the tenacity and effectiveness of the Israeli security and intelligence services, if the elimination of the leadership could put an end to the movement, it would have happened long ago.
Eliminating the messenger does not guarantee in any way resolving the conflict that the message relates. The failure of Hamas and its disappearance, if it ever happens, will occur by implosion, that is, the population on which it is based, terrorizes and uses it as a shield, alibi and victim story. perceive that there is a solution outside of Hamaswhich is possible, viable and desirable and eliminate movement. Probably the most intelligent and profitable effort of Israel It would be decisively helping to make this happen with all the means at your disposal.
The case of Hezbollah is even more complex to analyze from the point of view of its desirable disappearance. Lebanon is a sovereign country in which the ‘Party of God’ plays a prominent role since its birth back in 1982 as a political-military organization backed by Iran, whose purpose was the expulsion of Israel from Lebanon. Let us remember that at that time Lebanon had already been in civil war for seven years. and that Israel supported the Christian militias against the PLO, which settled in Lebanon after its expulsion from Jordan.
Hezbollah is a structure that encompasses all activities, from welfare, to police, representation, justice, government… It is a State – undesirable – within the State. Its military branch is more effective and powerful than the Lebanese army itself and its political branch controls the formation of the government and parliament. As can be deduced, that is not decapitated. It can be weakened, it can even be forced to agree to a ceasefire under conditions that are apparently onerous for its interests, but it cannot be made to disappear. The only possibility of effective change is the disappearance of the military branch of Hezbollah through dissolution or partial integration into the Lebanese army.in such a way that its activities were at all times subject to national and non-partisan interest. Here too, Israel’s action through determined support for a renewed Lebanon would be crucial. Today, Lebanon is a failed state, with rampant corruption, no viable economy, no control over its security and no future. Anything that helps reverse the situation and generate a story of hope will be welcomed by the Lebanese population, who are the ones who suffer first and foremost from all the calamities.
Today, Israel is prolonging the bombing campaign in Gaza and Lebanon, a fact difficult to justify if we look at the initial objectives that were set both in Gaza – destroy Hamas, rescue the October 7 hostages and ensure that Gaza is no longer a threat to Israel – and in Lebanon – prevent Hezbollah’s action on Israel and guarantee the return of the 60,000 displaced people from its northern area.
I do not doubt that Israel will end up winning all the battles it faces, another thing is when and how it will finish fighting them. The war in the story is impossible to win, there is no legitimacy that can withstand an incessant drip of civilian casualties even though the person who causes this terrible reality is the one who hides among the population and is nourished by their martyrdom. In the same way, There is no society that is willing to tolerate an endless war that takes the lives of the youngest and impoverishes the population.
The desired end state should be a peaceful Middle East, a space of shared prosperity and a system of peaceful resolution of conflicts that exist and will continue to exist. Unfortunately, it does not seem to be the horizon desired by the Israeli cabinet, with its prime minister at the helm, nor that of Iran, muñidor and support of the “Axis of Resistance” with its desires for regional hegemony and its fundamentalist and anti-Israeli theocracy.
There are too many spurious interests of the great powers, which could curb what happens, and no will to resolve the conflict. So nothing will change except for the worse: endless war.
