The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has been monitoring an area of low pressure in the Atlantic Ocean but chances the system will strengthen into a tropical depression in the next week have fallen.
There are no active named storm systems brewing as of Wednesday evening, but meteorologists are warning that the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season is far from over. The normal season runs through November 30, and conditions are still favorable for storm formation. The next named storm will be Nadine.
The NHC has been monitoring a system known as AL94 for the past several days. AL94 originated off the west coast of Africa. Chances the system would develop into a named storm were ticking higher earlier this week, but the most recent NHC update shows they have fallen.
National Hurricane Center
As of Wednesday evening, the chance of formation in the next 48 hours was low at 30 percent, the same chance the system showed yesterday. However, the storm now has a medium chance of forming over the next seven days at 40 percent, compared to 60 percent earlier this week.
“Recent satellite surface wind data showed the circulation associated with a disturbance over the tropical Atlantic Ocean has become less defined since yesterday,” the update said. “The trough of low pressure continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.”
The NHC update added: “This system is forecast to move generally westward to west-northwestward, and environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for gradual development during the latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as the system moves near the Leeward and Virgin Islands late this week.”
Newsweek reached out to the NHC by email for comment.
Despite the fluctuating chances, AccuWeather lead hurricane forecaster Alex DaSilva previously told Newsweek that AccuWeather is “highly confident that something is going to develop” out of the system. AccuWeather is referring to the system as a tropical rainstorm since it has not yet strengthened into a tropical storm.
The most recent AccuWeather update for the storm predicts it will bring torrential rain and gusty winds across multiple northern Caribbean islands. The storm is expected to pass through Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti and then Jamaica, meaning the system would stay south of Florida, which is still recovering from back-to-back hurricanes Milton and Helene.
The NHC also is monitoring another concerning area in the western Caribbean. That system has a lower chance of forming, with a 20 percent chance of formation in the next 48 hours. It also has a 20 percent chance of formation in the next seven days.
