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ALCS Game 3 Astros vs. Yankees picks: Expect Cole and Javier to deliver pitchers’ duel

The ALCS shifts to the Bronx for Game 3, and the Houston Astros can really put the heat on the New York Yankees.

The pregame narrative: The Astros won both games at home to open the series, and they’ve now won seven of nine games against the Yankees in 2022. Houston can take a commanding 3-0 series lead but will have to do it against former Astro Gerrit Cole, New York’s ace.

Here are our Astros vs. Yankees picks for Game 3 of the ALCS on October 22.

Odds as of 8:50 p.m. ET on 10/21/2022.

Game 3 Astros vs. Yankees picks

[Best Bet] : Under 7 runs (-112)

If you need an example of how deep the Astros’ pitching staff is, look no further than Cristian Javier.

Despite capping the season with just one earned run allowed across five September/October starts (0.32 ERA), Javier was used merely as a bullpen arm during the ALDS matchup with the Mariners. Now he’ll return to a starting role, where he thrived for the Astros all season.

Javier’s 2.54 ERA would’ve been tied for fifth in the AL if he’d hit the innings requirement to be a qualified starter. His fastball has elite movement and his curveball has elite spin, leading to some dazzling percentiles on his Baseball Savant page:

Opposite Javier is Cole, who has allowed just three runs in 13.1 innings this postseason.

That’s nothing new for Cole, a two-time Cy Young finalist who boasts a 2.81 ERA and 11.5 K/9 rate across 16 postseason starts.

With Javier and Cole on the mound, don’t expect a sudden uptick in offence from either side.

Key stat: Each of Houston’s past four games has fallen below this total, as well as eight of New York’s past nine games overall.

Quick picks

Most hits – Astros (+100): The last time Javier pitched in the Bronx, he and the Houston bullpen combined to no-hit the Yankees.

We’re not suggesting a repeat of that dominance, but Javier has held the current Yankees lineup to just four hits in 48 at-bats overall (.083 batting average).

For as good as Cole is, his former Astros teammates know him better and have batted 21-for-102 (.206) off him. Houston has out-hit the Yankees in both games so far, holding a 15-9 lead across the two postseason contests.

Gerrit Cole over 6.5 Ks (+100): If this game becomes the pitchers’ duel we’re banking on, Cole should be able to cash on this prop. He’s recorded 8 strikeouts apiece in two postseason starts this year, and he fanned eight Astros over seven innings during the regular season.

While Houston hitters know him, they can’t always lay off his strikeout stuff. Cole owns a respectable 26.1% K-rate against the Astros lineup — nearly 4% greater than league average.

JH

Jordan Horrobin writes about sports betting for NorthStar Bets. NorthStar Bets is owned by NordStar Capital, which also owns Torstar, the Star’s parent company. Follow him on Twitter: @JordanHorrobin

Disclaimer This content was produced as part of a partnership and therefore it may not meet the standards of impartial or independent journalism.



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