AFL grand final 2024: Familiar sinking feeling for Sydney Swans as they suffer fourth grand final loss in 11 years

Sydney Swans fans know more keenly than most that there is no guaranteed pecking order, or taking turns to win a premiership.

That record drought between South Melbourne’s “foreign legion” winning over Richmond in 1933, and Leo Barry’s stunning pack mark for the ages to seal victory against West Coast, 72 years later, makes it quite plain.

There’s no guarantee of even getting back to a grand final in footy, so making it to an eighth decider in 29 seasons is so far ahead of the curve it’s not funny.

But now the Swans have gone down by a crushing 60 points to Brisbane on the last Saturday of September, that stat threatens to haunt.

It shifts Sydney towards levels of frustration normally associated with the likes of St Kilda, Geelong in the late 1980s and 1990s, or Collingwood in their Colliwobbles era.

Slumped and motionless on the MCG during the formalities, the Swans looked stunned after they — the number one team for most of the year — were dealt a thorough demolition job from the Lions.

Going into this year’s grand final, it had been a dozen years since Sydney’s last flag, and a lot of water had flowed under the bridge since then.

The Buddy Franklin years had come and gone, three grand finals – and three bad grand final losses – had taken the tarnish off some of the Swans’ reputation.

Under John Longmire, just as with Paul Roos before him, their consistency was stunning, but the biggest wins were hard to come by.

As the Sydney Swans (not South Melbourne), the club had achieved seven grand finals in 27 seasons.

Wins: 2005 (by four points), 2012 (by 10 points)

Losses: 1996 (by 43 points), 2006 (by 1 point), 2014 (by 63 points), 2016 (by 22 points) and 2022 (by 81 points).

As South Melbourne, the club had won three premierships, in 1909, 1918 and 1933.

All up, five flags in 150 years. That the sesquicentenary was marked this year could be a complete coincidence, or one of those “meant to be” things, depending who you spoke to.

But it all went very pear-shaped once more on the biggest stage of all.

There was plenty on the line for the club, not just the simple result and the question of this year’s premiership.

Regardless of who had won, the narrative would be one of redemption.

For Brisbane, it was a case of trying to end a two-decade wait for a flag, wipe the slate from last year’s painful narrow loss to Collingwood, and stamp Chris Fagan finally as a premiership coach.

But for Sydney, it was not just seeking to move past the 81-point thrashing by Geelong in 2022, there was the legacy of a generation of Swans players and coach John Longmire to consider.

There was the growing reputation of the Swans as inveterate slow starters as well.

Unlike the Geelong game, Sydney was well in it at quarter time, trailing by just eight points. It has to be said, however, that they were lucky with some poor finishing by the Lions, with misses from Charlie Cameron and Joe Daniher prime among them.

But at least it was a base from which the red and white could try to impose their game on Brisbane and gain the upper hand.

What happened next, however, was an awful lot like the worst of deja vu for Sydney’s players and their coach.

The Lions did what Sydney often do to other sides, and put on a withering scoring burst in the second term, booting five goals from just 19 kicks to blow the game open. It was a seven-goal-to-one quarter, and the game was more than sliding out of reach by the long break.

Another five goals to one in the third quarter decided the issue, as Sydney failed to get its much-vaunted attack going.

The question is, were these huge losses to Geelong and now Brisbane a case of being unlucky to run into two teams producing grand final performances out of the top drawer, or was there something about this Sydney side that leads to these sort of results?

One possible answer can be found with a look at Sydney’s past four grand finals since 2014.

Excepting 2016, where Sydney was slightly in front at half-time in a game against the Bulldogs they would go on to lose, the Swans have been down and almost out of sight by half-time in the other three grand finals.

Given that the record grand final comeback is Carlton beating Collingwood from 44 points down in 1970, the Swans are being forced to come from way too far back. 

One of Sydney’s strengths is its powerful trio of midfielders in Isaac Heeney, Chad Warner and Errol Gulden.

Their strong running, athleticism and skill resulted in a total of 84 goals kicked for the year. When you add in their direct goal assists, the three players contributed to 150 of Sydney’s 364 goals in 2024.

The trio averaged more than three goals a game, and when they did, the Swans usually won. When they combined for four or more, Sydney only had one loss all season.

In this grand final, however, the trio only had two and Heeney finished the game off the ground with a leg injury.

The tall forward group of Amartey, Hayden McLean and Logan McDonald combined for 107 goals this season. In the final game of the season, none of the three managed a goal, although they were hardly on their own on a very tough day for the Swans. Also, McDonald was hampered by injury and was subbed out of the game just after half-time.

Overall, the trio average 4.11 goals a game combined.

Another key stat was that Brisbane’s level of uncontested possession showed they could virtually do what they pleased at the MCG.

They took a monstrous 158 marks around the ground, including 22 grabs inside 50 — compared to nine for the Swans.

This led to an imbalance of uncontested possessions, where the Lions controlled the game with 267 to Sydney’s 189. 

The Sydney brand is being tough, being professional, never being out of a game and pushing opponents to the limit even if they don’t win.

The Swans have added other strings to their bow in recent years, and now can offer devastating attacking — and counter-attacking — surges. They are a pretty complete team, with multiple modes of scoring.

But their big strength is scoring off turnovers. Coming into the grand final, they led the league in these kind of scores, averaging a tick over 56 points a game.

But in the grand final, this was turned on its head. The Lions kicked at least 10 goals from Sydney turnovers, while the Swans managed four.

The Lions, like the Cats before them, were able to take Sydney’s game away from them, limiting the midfield and applying insane pressure with little coming back at them.

The two personnel question marks were the choices not to play skipper Callum Mills 17 days off a hamstring issue, and the decision to go with Logan McDonald up forward despite him picking up an injury late in the prelim final.

The history of selecting half-forward Sam Reid for the 2022 grand final despite an adductor injury only for Reid to be subbed at half-time should have made the Swans think twice about McDonald. McDonald was not right, and the decision backfired spectacularly. It was just a sign of how it all went wrong on the day.   

So where does this leave the Swans?

They are still one of the best teams in the league, and could well challenge again next year.

But no doubt the soul-searching will go on for a while after this one. Some forward help is surely necessary to avoid placing too much reliance on their dynamic midfielders. 

After the match, John Longmire lamented that he didn’t think his team “gave it our best shot” and didn’t apply enough pressure, allowing the Lions to score too easily.

That is presumably largely on the players. Longmire as a coach at the Swans has an excellent record, but after five grand finals played under him, and only one flag to show for it, the question is: does Sydney have a mindset problem with the deciders?

If they keep getting caught in blowouts early in big games, you have to think there will come a point where the club decides it needs to change something.